Shi Zhengrong: Solar cell prices will drop by half within a decade

Shi Zhengrong: Solar cell prices will drop by half within a decade 

Energy’s richest man, Zhengrong Shi, opened in Shanghai, “China International Industry Fair” on. He said a large number of Chinese companies flocking into the solar photovoltaic industry, the upstream product to make the polysilicon industry, strong demand, prices rise, but the homogenization of the result of competition would be to have shrunk by half a decade later the price of silicon. At the same time, he believed that the real competitor is the solar thermal power generation and other traditional industries, rather than the same industry with the ever-escalating price war.

Recently in Europe, a study reports that by mid-century solar power will account for 30% of the entire energy supply, while the end of this century the ratio will rise to 70%. Zhengrong Shi said: “The solar industry is the future of energy development.” However, when checked on this diagram, he was a bit worried frown and said: “This figure indicates that although the demand for solar energy grew by 5 years, 37%, but a few Chinese solar companies only have as many as 400-500. everyone has pushed up upstream polysilicon and other raw material prices. ”

Over the past 3 to 5 years, polysilicon prices rose by 165%, “and this price rise in China, reaching 200%. This is very normal.” Shi said that the second and third quarters of 2006, China’s solar cell has reached its highest price, that is, one-watt solar cells 4 to 5 dollars. The fourth quarter, there were obvious signs of decline, down 5% to 10%. “Next year, this figure will fall by 5% to 10%.”

Suntech Power Co., Ltd Sales Director, Mr Yip told the “First Financial Daily” to the 2016 one watt of solar cells will sell for under 2 dollars, when the market will change significantly.

The quality of the

In a growing number of products cases, ensure that the new energy products, quality is very important. Shi Zhengrong, said that if the price of solar cells down to 2 dollars or 1.5 U.S. dollars of the time, then it will be close to the basic cost of thermal power generation, then a large number of expansion is also necessary.

Many companies are suddenly in an area can be understood, is also normal, but not all companies are suitable for coming, Shi Zhengrong that the different energy products and daily consumer goods, which may be the better quality and more expensive prices, but only got to have good energy products the quality, but also a suitable price. “You finally found a customer, but this product can not maintain long-term life span, the price even lower had lost its credibility.”

Not long ago, the world’s leading companies an accident that occurred at BP, the company ignored the quality of testing, a sudden combustion-related products. “If your product can not have 30 years of quality guarantee period, a 100-year life, I advise you not to do the battery.” Shi said.

Polysilicon battery is a long industrial chain. Start with a general refine silicon in high purity polysilicon, and then through the cutting processing, and then create a package, good battery piece. At present, because the refining equipment and technology is not mature, so this part of the Chinese companies are less capable in general for the international monopoly of a few enterprises.

The control of silicon ingots and cutting links, as well as film and battery components, battery manufacturing, China have become in the world.

In order to end products can be declining price of the battery must be carried out technological innovation and transformation equipment. And technological innovation on the one hand, is the use of thin-film batteries, that is, the original battery replaced with 300-micron thinner battery, can generally reach 2 to 3 microns, so that not only cost savings, also be applied to a wider range of industries . Shi Zhengrong, said: “Suppose the mature thin-film batteries with the existing conversion rate of polycrystalline silicon cells, it means more than 15%, then the future market will be dominated by thin-film batteries.”

Battery protection chip: Semiconductor makers compete for the hot spot

Recently, Cirrus Logic Inc. announced the acquisition of local IC design company, Caretta, thereby extending their reach to the field of power protection IC. And traditional IC manufacturers, such as NS, TI, Maxim, and other long lithium battery just a few years ago began to develop, on the set of the Battery Protection IC research and development.

With the portable market continues to heat up, lithium-ion battery market has also followed suit, giving rise caused by the increasing number of battery protection IC vendor’s attention.

The market of several billions of dollars a year

Cirrus Logic for audio and industrial applications and embedded mixed-signal IC products is known for the industry. The Cirrus Logic acquisition, Caretta is a Shanghai-based fabless IC design company, mainly for single-cell lithium-ion battery battery protection IC market development.

As the environmental requirements and portable video cameras, notebook computers and multimedia equipment, such as the popularity of rechargeable batteries are widely used, together with today’s rechargeable batteries being environmentally friendly, thin, small energy, high density, direction, makes rechargeable batteries, especially high-capacity lithium battery market share is growing.

Data show that in 2003 -2006 the global lithium-ion battery production scale compound annual growth rate of 23.2%, sales revenue compound annual growth rate of 12.25%; 2007 -2,010 years, lithium-ion battery industry will enter a relatively stable growth stage, is expected to produce the size of compound growth rate of 9.85%, sales compound annual growth rate of 5.85%. Mobile phone market as an example, according to iSuppli forecasts and other authoritative bodies in 2006, the global mobile phone shipments reached 950 million more than in 2007 to more than one billion. China’s mobile phone industry and market development faster than the global level, in 2006 domestic production more than 400 million handsets, accounting for 40% global share. According to Sino Market’s survey and projected 2006 sales of the domestic market is expected to total 120 million mobile phones. To each cell phone battery with a piece of the calculation, we can easily calculate the next year or two the market size of mobile phone batteries. The other portable consumer electronics products to the demand for rechargeable batteries is also increasing.

According to industry experts, the rechargeable batteries during use, over-charge, over discharge and over-current will affect the battery life and performance, for the safe design, battery batteries, especially lithium-ion batteries to be installed to protect plate, in order to to prevent overcharge, over discharge and short circuit caused by combustion, explosion and other dangers. This safety protection board is a dedicated IC and several external components form. Rechargeable battery protection IC loop through the protection of effective monitoring and to prevent damage to the battery produces.

Tianjin Nanda strong core technical director Zhang Xing In an interview with “China Electronics News” interview, said, as each lithium-ion batteries required to install a battery protection IC, so mobile phones, laptops and electric bicycles, and other markets, driven by Battery Protection IC market will grow continuously, the current global battery protection IC has been billions of dollars a year market.

Public companies actively involved in competition

For a certain in analog IC technology-based companies in terms of, intervention into this area is not a difficult task. Although many large international companies, such as TI, Maxim and others have some power solutions, but each company should focus on different fields, therefore, faced with the huge market, as long as identify the entry point, the opportunity is always there.

Cirrus Logic President and CEO David D. French, said: “Cirrus Logic’s core products, we benefited from the success of analog and mixed-signal expertise. From this perspective, the acquisition will help us, Caretta the mixed-signal knowledge extended to areas of power management. In addition, this acquisition will enhance our local Chinese engineers and customer support teams, to Cirrus Logic’s long-term development in the Chinese market for long-term assistance. Acquiring Caretta expands Cirrus Logic in the analog integrated circuit aspects of the field of professional competence and diversity. “in 2005, Cirrus Logic out of digital video SoC market, focusing on the company’s core areas of strength and development for audio and industrial applications and embedded mixed-signal IC products. The acquisition by virtue of their accumulation in mixed-signal IC technology, a smooth transition to the analog IC the most important part – the power management area, to strengthen their own competitiveness.

Maxim Market Leader told the “China Electronics News” reporter, Maxim had several years ago to develop lithium-ion battery protection IC, and that the battery management products as an important part of product line and remains subject to the company’s emphasis on constant there are new products coming to market.

TI has also continued to strengthen protection of lithium battery charger IC product performance, they introduced a product bq24060, enhanced thermal fold-back regulation and low dropout power management features.

Strong core of Tianjin Nanda-hing, said Zhang, the original Tianjin Nanda strong core machine just for large foreign firms to provide design services, but see how power management IC market outlook, they also developed a corresponding battery protection products, with a view to enter the domestic market.

So many have not previously been involved in the design of power management IC market, are turning to the field, combined with the traditional power management IC vendors intensive, I believe it will be more intense competition in the market.

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